WORLD, Page 32MIDDLE EASTContemplating the Next StepIn interviews with TIME editors, Mubarak and Hussein urge GeorgeBush to take charge of jump-starting peace negotiationsBy Hosni Mubarak, King Hussein, Henry Muller, John Stacks
Now that the U.S. is talking to Yasser Arafat's Palestine
Liberation Organization, what should the next step be? For Egypt's
President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Hussein, two moderates
whose unofficial alliance is seen by the U.S. as a key to peace in
the region, the answer is obvious -- and familiar: get the U.S. to
budge Israel.
In interviews last week with TIME managing editor Henry Muller
and chief of correspondents John Stacks, the Arab leaders each
emphasized that the incoming Bush Administration should make the
Middle East a top priority and must persuade (a polite word for
"pressure") Israel's newly formed unity government to enter peace
negotiations aimed at reaching a settlement fair to the
Palestinians.
Mubarak and Hussein see no realistic alternative to strong
American activism, since Arafat has made some important concessions
on the Arab side but Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir remains
adamant in refusing demands that his country withdraw from the
disputed territories. "You have your own connections with the
Israelis," Mubarak said. "We are trying hard with the Israelis, but
we can't play in the court alone. You should find a way to tackle
this problem of how to persuade the Israelis to move forward in the
peace process."
Despite evidence that the U.S. is usually reluctant to exert
pressure on Israel in matters of war and peace and doubts that
Israel would listen anyway, Hussein sees Bush's experience in
foreign affairs as reason for Arab optimism. "The U.S. can do much
with Israel, and it needs to do much in the times ahead," he said.
Bush "knows the area. With all due respect, I had many meetings
with President Reagan, (but) he had other priorities. Of all the
problems the world has, (the Middle East) is the most dangerous."
Mubarak and Hussein, speaking separately in Cairo and Amman,
discouraged any suggestion that Bush should come up with a new set
of peace proposals. As they see it, all the parties to the
conflict, except for the present Israeli government, already favor
the convening of an international conference that includes
Palestinian representation. "We don't need any more new
initiatives," Hussein said. "There is a general agreement that an
international conference would be the venue for the establishment
of peace. All the parties have to participate. The Palestinians
have to be involved. So we have to get on with it, rather than
start looking for new formulas."
Mubarak said that Shamir should not fear that Arab states will
gang up on Israel during negotiations. "Frankly speaking," he said,
"I wonder why he fears an international conference. It will lead
immediately to direct negotiations," as Shamir demands. Shamir is
now suggesting he might countenance U.N. sponsorship to launch
peace talks, but he remains firmly opposed to any more substantive
international participation. In a separate interview in Jerusalem,
Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens explained why. At an
international conference, he said, "there's the danger of having
pressure applied to you, not by the party with whom you have to
make peace but by other parties who may have other interests."
Arab leaders feel the Palestinian intifadeh in the West Bank
and Gaza has given new urgency to resolving the prolonged debate
over mechanics. "We can't spend years and years speaking about the
Palestinian problem without any solution," Mubarak warned. "The
Palestinians are living under oppression. They started the
intifadeh on their own. We have to give them hope that they are
going to have their rights." Hussein agreed that the uprising "has
proved Israel was wrong in assuming that by occupying other
people's territories, it would assure security for itself."
Mubarak also called on "courageous people in Israel" to
reciprocate the offering of the olive branch made by his
predecessor, the late Anwar Sadat, during his daring trip to
Jerusalem in 1977. But Hussein argued that timidity was precisely
Israel's problem. Referring to a December poll in the daily Yediot
Aharonot showing that 54% of Israelis favor negotiations with
Arafat's organization, Hussein said, "It is tragic that Israeli
public opinion supports a dialogue with the P.L.O., yet the
leadership in Israel is unable to move with enough vision and
enough courage to seize this opportunity for making progress toward
the establishment of a just peace." Arens remained unconvinced. "We
certainly don't feel (there is such a shift) in the political
arena," he said.
If Mubarak and Hussein simply wait for U.S. pressure on Israel,
however, they could be profoundly disappointed. As Hussein noted,
Palestinian or Israeli extremists could literally blow up the
chances for peace. Meanwhile, Arab moderates may feel content to
sit back rather than consider additional steps that could entice
Israel into negotiations, like encouraging broad Arab recognition
of Israel's right to exist. That, Hussein insists, will be "no
problem" once there is a comprehensive Arab-Israeli settlement. "I
have been asked many times, `Do you recognize Israel?' " Hussein
said. "I have suggested again and again that since we accepted
Resolution 242, that was obviously a fact." But it is also a fact
that Jordan's willingness has yet to result in a peace treaty with
Israel, and the radical regimes in Syria, Iraq and Libya have given
no sign that they are prepared to recognize Israel's right to
exist.
Israel hopes to sidetrack an Arab-American drive by proffering
a peace plan of its own. While Arens made it clear Israel would
not follow the U.S. into talks with the P.L.O., that American
decision has quickened Israeli diplomacy. Without acknowledging the
reason, Arens said that Shamir would present a new peace initiative
when he visits Washington later this winter. "I think at this stage
of the game the ball's in our court," said Arens. "The ((Israeli))
government has got to enunciate its position, and I would hope that
the U.S. would support an Israeli initiative."
All would do well to consider Hussein's counsel that conditions
for peace have not been so ripe since the state of Israel was
founded in 1948. The trend is toward moderation. Egypt has a treaty
with Israel, Jordan at least wants to resolve the conflict, and the
P.L.O. seems ready to talk rather than fight. Radical Arabs, said
Mubarak, are increasingly feeling "cornered." At an Arab League
meeting expected soon, Hussein will lead a moderate attempt to
reinstate Egypt, expelled for signing the peace treaty with Israel
in 1979. He also wants to take away the statutory authority of the
radicals to paralyze moderate Arab initiatives with a veto in the
Arab League. If those things happen, it should encourage the U.S.
to persuade Israel -- perhaps without even having to resort to
pressure -- to be more flexible about negotiations.
